AVOLTA: Partial sell-off in sight... with +44%!

"Is our intention perhaps a wrong decision? Are we selling too early in view of the consistently very solid performance of the travel retailer? AVOLTA tends to be a good investment story at the moment... but we have often thought that - the pandemic sends its regards - and then things turned out differently than we thought! This time too?There is a lot, indeed almost everything, in favor of this share at the moment: 1. business is booming, the steady recovery in business figures continues, including in 1Q25, which is finally also encouraging analysts. 2. the start to 2Q25 gives grounds for optimism; sales grew by +5.7% in April, nota bene organically. 3. the global presence is becoming ever broader and weaknesses in one region can be offset by strengths in another. 4. the CEO, Xavier Rossinyol, says that only one in five passengers buys something in the airport stores; conversely, 80% of travelers do not buy anything. He therefore still sees a lot of potential here. 5. the takeover rumors by CVC Capital Partners are still floating around, but where could a takeover price be fixed?

So far, the figures are flawless: 1Q25 sales were up +9.6% to CHF 3.05 billion; organic growth was +5.3%. The medium-term targets for the year are also within this range (+5% to +7%). Nevertheless, the sky is not all "blue": Trump's tariff policy and general economic slowdowns are definitely a cause for concern; not the direct impact on AVOLTA, but in terms of a difficult consumer environment, especially in the USA. Passenger numbers are down by around 15% in the USA alone. The hoped-for return of intercontinental Chinese travelers is also rather subdued. Money is not very loose in the pockets of many consumers. "Be that as it may", we are reducing the position and selling the very cheaply acquired shares (2/3 of the position) with a limit at CHF 44.50 (valid until the end of June), which would result in a profit of +44%! Target price for the remainder: CHF 59.50!