SHELL PLC and OIL MARKET: Profit of +28% realized!

We succeeded in selling the shares of the energy group SHELL PLC better than expected. On April 18, we sold our SHELL position at the opening at GBP 28.39. At the exchange rate of GBP/CHF 1.1350, we received CHF 32.23. The purchase took place on May 4, 2023 at GBP 23.50 and an exchange rate of GBP/CHF 1.1140, which ultimately corresponds to CHF 26.18. Excluding dividends, this results in a pleasing gain of +23.1% in just under a year. With the four dividends paid out, we even achieved a gain of +27.8% in CHF! We are delighted with our good performance, but it was a bumpy road. In October 2023, we were already close to our original price target of GBP 29.50. However, in the weeks that followed, we lost all our gains and had to start again at the starting price of GBP 23.50 in January 2024. The share price then recovered, but stuttered and caused some uncertainty, which led us to reduce our target price. When Iran attacked Israel, we expected the oil price to rise significantly. Once again, however, things turned out differently than expected, with the price stagnating and even falling slightly. Nevertheless, as mentioned at the beginning, the share was even sold above our price target of GBP 27.30.

Calm is unlikely to return to the oil market any time soon. Unfortunately, the wars in Russia and the Gaza Strip do not point to a quick peace settlement. The oil-producing countries are keeping supply tight and hope that the price will stabilize at a high level. The weakening global economy and the West's move away from fossil fuels form the "counterbalance". Oil and the shares of energy companies fluctuate accordingly and the investment risk remains volatile! We will keep an eye on the oil market and oil shares in any case. For the time being, however, we are pleased with the successful exit and the realized profit of +28%!